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In less than two months UK citizens will make one of their biggest political decisions in more than 40 years: whether to remain or leave the EU trading bloc they have been part of since 1973. While an exit from the EU could mark a major milestone for the UK economy — the government fears GDP could suffer by over 6% after 15 years — a leave vote is seen having a limited impact on the UK upstream sector. For a start, North Sea oil has been regulated by London since before the UK joined the EU. Offshore safety laws were tweaked by Brussels in the wake of the 2010 US Gulf of Mexico spill, but their scope is limited. In the short term at least, it is seen as unlikely that there would be any back-peddling on EU legislation which has already been implemented into domestic law. Existing rules, whether originating in Brussels or not, would not fall away on Brexit (British exit from the EU) and it is unlikely that they would simply be repealed. Further down the road the UK would be free set its own offshore rules, which could diverge with EU legislation. In upstream oil and gas, Brexit would not change the key fiscal regime for the North Sea. London already has sovereignty over corporation tax, licensing and other regulations would not be affected in the short term. There is also little sense of urgency over an exit vote in the industry. Any changes to the operating environment would be years down the line. Some predict it would take a decade or more for the UK to fully disengage from the EU. “Is Brexit at the forefront of people’s minds right now as they are doing (North Sea related) deals? No is the answer,” said Julian Nichol, a lawyer at Bracewell which advises energy companies on legal issues. “From a legal perceptive, there is going to be a minimum impact on existing contracts. Brexit per se is not likely to trigger defaults.” Most multi-national firms support the UK remaining in the EU and Big Oil is also in favor of the status quo. BP’s boss Bob Dudley has said Britain’s role would be “much diminished” if it exits while Shell’s CEO has signed a pro-EU letter saying leaving “would deter investment and threaten jobs.” Some have suggested that a UK decision to leave could trigger a new vote for Scottish independence, with Scots likely plump for alliance to Brussels rather than London. If Scotland decides to break ties with the UK to keep access to EU markets, uncertainties may resurface over the progress of reforms needed streaml...